{
  "title": "Central Phenix City winning streak, measured",
  "generated": "2026-09-18",
  "source_files": [
    "data/games_2025.csv",
    "data/games_2026.csv"
  ],
  "window": {
    "first_game": "2025-08-26",
    "last_game": "2026-09-17",
    "note": "Our game files begin in August 2025. They hold 25 of the 62 streak wins, ending with the Del Norte win on the morning of September 11, 2026, plus both losses at the MaxPreps Flag Football Showdown and the September 17 win over Auburn. The streak figures below cover the 25 wins only. The losses and the Auburn win fall outside the run and are reported separately.",
    "streak_games_first": "2025-08-26",
    "streak_games_last": "2026-09-11"
  },
  "central": {
    "excluded_from_rating": [
      {
        "date": "2025-10-07",
        "opponent": "BLESSED TRINITY CATHOLIC HIGH SCHOOL",
        "score": "33-13",
        "reason": "non_ahsaa_opponent"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "opponent": "Del Norte High School",
        "score": "39-7",
        "reason": "non_ahsaa_opponent",
        "score_in_feed": "38-7"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "opponent": "Merced High",
        "score": "12-20",
        "reason": "non_ahsaa_opponent"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-12",
        "opponent": "Orange Lutheran High School",
        "score": "7-21",
        "reason": "non_ahsaa_opponent",
        "source": "MaxPreps; absent from the DragonFly feed"
      }
    ],
    "model_2026_09_18": {
      "rating": 37.46,
      "elo": 2015.4,
      "state_rank": 1,
      "gap_to_second": 4.29,
      "sos": 15.0,
      "sos_rank": 9,
      "sos_rank_of": 146
    },
    "note_on_del_norte": "Del Norte is recorded 38-7 in our DragonFly feed and 39-7 by MaxPreps. We use 39-7. Across the 25 streak games the difference moves points_for from 1053 to 1054 and average_score_for from 42.1 to 42.2, and changes no other figure.",
    "note_on_orange_lutheran": "The 12 September loss to Orange Lutheran does not appear in data/games_2026.csv. DragonFly is coach-entered and out-of-state tournament results are its weakest area. The game is added by hand here and in the article from MaxPreps, and is not written back to the CSV, which pipeline/__main__.py rebuilds from the feed nightly.",
    "streak_games": {
      "games": 25,
      "wins": 25,
      "losses": 0,
      "points_for": 1054,
      "points_against": 46,
      "average_score_for": 42.2,
      "average_score_against": 1.8,
      "opponent_shutouts": 20,
      "opponents_that_scored": 5,
      "median_margin": 39,
      "mean_margin": 40.3,
      "wins_by_30_or_more": 22,
      "wins_by_40_or_more": 10,
      "games_inside_nine_points": 0,
      "closest_game": {
        "date": "2025-08-26",
        "opponent": "Montgomery Catholic Preparatory School",
        "score": "21-12",
        "margin": 9
      },
      "most_points_allowed": {
        "date": "2025-10-07",
        "opponent": "Blessed Trinity Catholic High School",
        "score": "33-13",
        "points": 13
      },
      "largest_win": {
        "date": "2026-09-01",
        "opponent": "Johnson Abernathy Graetz (JAG) High School",
        "score": "63-0"
      },
      "last_win_of_streak": {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "opponent": "Del Norte High School",
        "score": "39-7",
        "note": "The 62nd and final win, played hours before the Merced loss."
      },
      "playoffs_2025": {
        "games": 5,
        "points_for": 231,
        "points_against": 14,
        "final": {
          "date": "2025-12-03",
          "opponent": "Vestavia Hills High School",
          "score": "46-7"
        }
      }
    },
    "outside_the_streak": {
      "note": "Not part of the 62-game run. Excluded from every streak figure above.",
      "games": [
        {
          "date": "2026-09-11",
          "opponent": "Merced High",
          "score": "12-20",
          "result": "L",
          "margin": -8,
          "rated": false,
          "note": "Ended the 62-game winning streak."
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-12",
          "opponent": "Orange Lutheran High School",
          "score": "7-21",
          "result": "L",
          "margin": -14,
          "rated": false,
          "note": "Second loss in two days. Not present in our DragonFly feed; score from MaxPreps."
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-09-17",
          "opponent": "Auburn High School",
          "score": "14-6",
          "result": "W",
          "margin": 8,
          "rated": true,
          "note": "First game after the streak. The only rated game between the September 9 and September 18 files."
        }
      ],
      "combined_with_streak_games": {
        "games": 28,
        "record": "26-2",
        "points_for": 1087,
        "points_against": 93
      }
    },
    "basis": "Streak figures cover the 25 in-window wins only; see streak_games and outside_the_streak."
  },
  "league_baseline_2025": {
    "completed_games": 690,
    "team_game_scores": 1380,
    "team_games_holding_opponent_scoreless": 324,
    "share_of_team_games_with_a_shutout": 0.235,
    "median_margin": 20,
    "mean_margin": 22.0,
    "mean_team_score": 16.6,
    "share_of_games_decided_by_30_or_more": 0.317
  },
  "reported_elsewhere": {
    "streak_length": 62,
    "streak_start": "November 2022, after a state quarterfinal loss to Auburn High School",
    "streak_end": "2026-09-11",
    "final_score": "Merced 20, Central 12",
    "event": "MaxPreps Flag Football Showdown, San Diego, 11-12 September 2026",
    "state_titles_during_streak": 3,
    "in_state_streak_at_time_of_loss": 58,
    "del_norte_score_in_our_feed": "38-7",
    "discrepancy_note": "Resolved in favor of MaxPreps. Our file is DragonFly-sourced, where coaches enter scores and out-of-state games are least reliable.",
    "del_norte_score": "39-7 (MaxPreps and game reports; used here)",
    "showdown_record": "1-2 (W 39-7 Del Norte, L 12-20 Merced, L 7-21 Orange Lutheran)",
    "second_loss": "Orange Lutheran 21, Central 7, 12 September 2026"
  }
}