Alabama 6A/7A Playoff Simulation

Round 2 Onwards - Monte Carlo Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation: Based on 10,000 tournament simulations using ELO-based win probabilities
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Team ELO Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Champion

Simulation Methodology

Monte Carlo Simulation

This playoff simulator runs 10,000 independent tournament simulations to estimate each team's probability of advancing through each round. Each simulation plays out the entire bracket using probabilistic outcomes based on ELO ratings.

Win Probability Calculation

For each matchup, win probabilities are calculated using the standard ELO formula:

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^((ELO_B - ELO_A) / 400))

Each game outcome is determined randomly based on these probabilities, simulating the inherent uncertainty of playoff competition.

ELO Ratings

The simulation uses initialized ELO ratings (with MaxPreps preseason data) from the final regular season rankings. No home field advantage is applied, as playoff games are assumed to be on neutral sites or with minimal impact.

Interpreting Results

Percentages represent the likelihood of each team advancing past each round across all 10,000 simulations. For example, a 45% championship probability means the team won the tournament in 4,500 of the 10,000 simulations.

Limitations

  • Simulations assume ELO ratings remain constant throughout the tournament
  • No adjustment for injuries, weather conditions, or other external factors
  • Win probabilities are based solely on regular season performance data
  • Results are probabilistic estimates, not predictions of actual outcomes