Alabama 6A/7A Playoff Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation

This championship simulator runs 10,000 independent game simulations to estimate each team's probability of winning the championship. Each simulation determines the winner using probabilistic outcomes based on ELO ratings.

Win Probability Calculation

For each matchup, win probabilities are calculated using the standard ELO formula:

P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^((ELO_B - ELO_A) / 400))

Each game outcome is determined randomly based on these probabilities, simulating the inherent uncertainty of playoff competition.

ELO Ratings

The simulation uses initialized ELO ratings (with MaxPreps preseason data) from the final regular season rankings. No home field advantage is applied, as playoff games are assumed to be on neutral sites or with minimal impact.

Interpreting Results

The championship probabilities represent the likelihood of each team winning the championship game across all 10,000 simulations. For example, a 77% championship probability means the team won the championship in 7,700 of the 10,000 simulations. Both teams have 100% finals probability as they have already advanced to the championship game.

Limitations

• Simulations assume ELO ratings remain constant throughout the tournament
• No adjustment for injuries, weather conditions, or other external factors
• Win probabilities are based solely on regular season performance data
• Results are probabilistic estimates, not predictions of actual outcomes