Alabama Statewide Flag Football Rankings

Power Rating (Primary)

The power rating comes from a regularized least-squares model fit to every rated game in the state at once. Each team's rating is measured in points relative to an average Alabama team, so the difference between two teams' ratings (plus home-field advantage) is the model's predicted margin for that matchup. Because all teams are solved jointly, strength of schedule is built in: beating a strong opponent moves your rating more than beating a weak one. Margins are capped at 28 points so blowouts don't distort the fit, and teams with few games are shrunk toward the average until they build a track record.

Elo Rating (Secondary)

We also publish a game-by-game Elo rating as a momentum view: ratings update after each result, weighted by margin of victory (capped, and damped so heavy favorites aren't over-rewarded for running up the score). In backtests on the 2025 season, the power rating predicted winners and margins more accurately than Elo, which is why it's the headline number.

Seeded vs. Cold Start

• Default view: teams start the season from their prior-season final rating, regressed 30% toward the average. The influence of last season fades automatically as new games are played.
• Cold Start: every team starts equal; ratings reflect only the current season's results.
• Seeding Impact: the difference between the two; positive means a team is still benefiting from last season's résumé.

Coverage & Game Inclusion

Rankings cover every AHSAA varsity girls flag football team statewide: all four 2026 divisions (6A, 5A, 1A-4A, Private) on one comparable scale. All varsity games between AHSAA member schools count, including playoffs; exhibitions and games against out-of-state opponents appear in team records but are excluded from ratings. Teams marked P have played fewer than 4 rated games and their ratings are provisional. A handful of AHSAA schools playing this season are not yet assigned to a division and are listed as Unclassified.

Data Sources & Updates

Game Data: Sourced from Dragonfly Athletics
Update Frequency: Nightly, automatically, throughout the season
Disclaimer: We are not affiliated with AHSAA or Dragonfly Athletics. Rankings provided for entertainment purposes only.