Go for 1 or 2? The Smarter Choice After a Touchdown

After a touchdown, the clean math question is simple: is your expected value higher by trying for one or by trying for two? The coaching question is harder, because score, clock, opponent strength, and your best plays all change the answer.

The break-even equation

Let p1 be your chance of making the one-point try and p2 be your chance of making the two-point try. The one-point attempt is worth 1 × p1. The two-point attempt is worth 2 × p2. Go for two on pure expected value when 2p2 > p1, or equivalently when p2 > p1 / 2.

If your 1-point rate is...	2-point break-even rate	Practical interpretation
70%	35%	Two can be correct even if it misses most of the time.
60%	30%	A modest 2-point package clears the math.
50%	25%	If both plays are shaky, choose by game state.
40%	20%	One is no longer a safe default.

Score examples

Down 14 late after scoring: two conversions can tie in two possessions; one plus one can also tie, but it gives you less upside if the opponent scores again. Down 8 after a touchdown: many coaches kick the decision forward, but the two-point try immediately tells you whether you need a stop-and-score to win or only to tie. Up 5 after scoring: a made two can push the lead to seven, but a miss leaves a one-score touchdown-and-conversion path, so opponent quality and timeouts matter.

When the table is not enough

• If your best short-yardage play is a two-point concept, your true p2 may be closer to p1 than the spot suggests.
• If the opponent has one elite rusher or a red-zone man package you cannot block, your estimated p2 should come down.
• If overtime rules make conversions central, the regular-game attempt is also a live rep for the play you may need later.
• If weather or officiating makes timing routes unreliable, use the conversion distance that keeps your best play intact.

Personalize the break-even point

Suppose your charted one-point success rate is 55% and your two-point success rate is 35%. One point has an expected value of 0.55; two has an expected value of 0.70. Two is the better average choice, even though the play succeeds less often. If the rates are 55% and 25%, the expected values are 0.55 and 0.50, so one wins on pure points.

Those estimates should come from your own attempts, not from a generic benchmark. Track the score, field position, personnel, concept, defensive look, distance, and result. After 20 attempts, treat the rate as a rough signal; after a larger sample, split it by the situations that actually change the play call. A single spectacular conversion or a single dropped pass should not rewrite the call sheet.

Use game state as a second filter

Expected value answers “how many points do we average?” It does not answer “which score do we need?” With a small lead late, one point may force a touchdown on the opponent's next possession while a missed two leaves the opponent needing only a touchdown. When trailing, two can be more valuable because it reveals whether the next possession needs to tie or win. Write those score states into the call sheet before the game so the decision is not made under deadline pressure.

Data and methods

The percentages in the table are illustrative break-even scenarios, not measured Alabama league-wide conversion rates. The equation is deterministic: a two-point try needs to succeed more than half as often as a one-point try to carry higher expected value. Teams should replace the example rates with their own charted conversion results.